In 2009, my country first introduced the "cars to the countryside" policy. Car sales surged by 46.1% that year, reaching the highest growth rate in the past 20 years. At present, the demand for new energy vehicles is falling into the new normal of sluggish and fluctuating development, and there are opinions that need a new round of policy promotion. So, is "new energy vehicles going to the countryside" realistic or not?
The New Deal in the auto market is inclined to new energy
Affected by the epidemic, the auto market in the first half of 2020 will continue to be sluggish. New energy vehicles are also facing danger. In the first quarter of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 105,000 and 114,000, down 60.2% and 56.4% year-on-year.
In order to actively respond to the impact of the epidemic, promote the upgrading of rural consumption, and promote automobile consumption. Guangdong Province issued a new announcement on "Automobiles to the Countryside". According to the announcement, among 60 models including fuel and new energy, rural residents in Guangdong Province can enjoy government subsidies of 10,000 yuan for new energy vehicles and 5,000 yuan for fuel vehicles. The subsidy for new energy vehicles has reached twice that of non-Xinyuan models. In addition, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Shandong and other places have also introduced similar policies to subsidize the sales of new energy vehicles in the rural market. Automobile manufacturers also actively responded to the policy. Changan New Energy launched exclusive preferential subsidies, and will provide a certain amount of cash subsidies to the E family models based on government subsidies.
Price is always an important consideration when deciding to buy, especially in the low-end market. From March 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010, the policy of driving cars to the countryside played a positive role in driving car consumption. In 2009, the annual sales of automobiles in my country reached 13.64 million, achieving a rapid growth of 46.1%, the highest growth rate in the past 20 years, and the stimulus effect was prominent. In 2010, it achieved another success, with the annual sales volume of 18.06 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 32.4%. Of course, "New Energy to the Countryside" can no longer reproduce the high-gloss era of "Automobiles to the Countryside" in 2009. Because there was a shortage of cars in rural areas at that time, the completion was from "0" to "1", so the effect was remarkable. But now the number of cars in rural areas has increased, cars are no longer new, and farmers have more choices. The benefits of real money will obviously stimulate the sales growth of new energy, but there is still doubt about how big this effect will be.
The dilemma of new energy in rural areas
Although a lot of money can be saved through subsidies, it is the last word that the vehicle is easy to use. According to the general development law of new products, cities are the forerunners of consumption. General products will not extend to the countryside until the cities have matured to a certain extent. If we try to strengthen the promotion of new energy vehicles in rural areas, we must not only raise standards in terms of quality, quality, safety, etc., but also need to adopt policies to strengthen rural consumers’ rigid demand for new energy vehicles, and simply lower the threshold and cannot solve consumption. Concerns in the heart of the reader.
The current road conditions in rural areas are not as good as those in cities, and wading is often required. Moreover, new energy vehicles are not only representative tools in rural areas, but also production tools. This means that new energy vehicles have to withstand more "beats" in rural areas. The rural market prefers "pure" cars. However, there are no outstanding new energy vehicles on the market in terms of durability. And because it started later than traditionally powered cars, the degree of technological maturity cannot be compared with a century-old car. Once the vehicle breaks down, the maintenance cost is significantly higher than that of traditional powered vehicles. In the field of maintenance, there is no clear subsidy policy, so the price of accessories is high. Because there is no subsidy, assuming that a few core components are replaced, the price will even exceed the entire vehicle.
There are many repair shops for traditionally powered cars, and there is even a surplus. However, the outlets that can repair new energy vehicles have not yet been fully covered. Especially in rural areas, repairing cars is more troublesome. If the maintenance cost is greater than that of fuel vehicles, it will not be conducive to the promotion of new energy vehicles in rural areas. In addition, whether the procedure is convenient and whether the subsidy money can directly reach the consumers is also a problem. When government departments and car companies promote new energy vehicles in rural areas, they need to introduce some subsidy rules, so that rural consumers can get the benefits of real money and "supply the subsidies to those who need it most."
Can new energy realize pastoral dreams?
New energy vehicles also have advantages in rural areas. The charging problem is relatively easy to solve. Although the rural public charging piles are insufficient. However, because rural areas have low requirements for vehicle mileage, the range of activities is small. So charging can often be solved at home. Long charging time is also not a problem. It can be charged at night and used during the day.
is like charging a mobile phone, which can be done at home. Compared to queuing at a gas station, it is obviously more relaxing and cozy. From this perspective, the vast world of rural areas may be more suitable for new energy than cities. Without the hassle of charging, the advantages of new energy sources have become more prominent in rural areas. Generally speaking, charging is much cheaper than refueling. Calculated in RMB, the consumption of 100 kilometers of a pure electric vehicle is less than half of gasoline. Over the course of a year, a lot of expenditures may actually be reduced. Low maintenance. There are differences between electric vehicles and traditional vehicles, so the focus of maintenance is also different. Traditional cars mainly focus on the maintenance of the engine system, which requires regular replacement of the oil and filter, etc.; while electric cars are driven by motors and do not require regular maintenance such as oil and belts. Instead, the battery pack and the electric motor are maintained. Generally speaking, they can be kept clean, which saves money and troubles much more than the maintenance of traditional cars.
The market potential in rural areas is greater. The car penetration rate in small and medium-sized cities and rural areas continues to increase. The car ownership of 100 households in rural areas has increased from 9.9 in 2013 to 22.3 in 2018. It has increased by 2.25 times in 5 years, a considerable increase, but it is still at a low level compared with large cities, and there is still a considerable gap waiting to be filled. Some people predict that by 2030, the number of rural cars per 1,000 people is expected to reach 160, and the total number of cars can reach about 70 million. Among them, in 2021-2023 alone, the cumulative sales of automobiles in rural areas will reach 9 million. If these needs can be replaced by small and economical electric vehicles, it will drive automobile consumption 500 billion yuan.
China is already the world's largest consumer of automobiles, the urban market potential is declining, and the vast world of rural areas provides a wilderness for cars to indulge. The rural market is the home of future automobile consumption. If new energy can be used with policy support, it will most likely become the protagonist of the rural market.
Although there will be no explosive growth during the first "cars to the countryside", the New Deal is bound to have a certain effect in the near future. Subsidies stimulate consumption, and consumption stimulates the improvement of technology and supporting facilities, thus realizing a virtuous circle. This is a gradual process of spiraling and rising. In the long run, it will be an inevitable trend for new energy to achieve undifferentiated coverage between urban and rural areas.