Five basic judgments for the development of the hydrogen energy industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan

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Time of issue:2020-06-04
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(Summary description)Thedevelopmentofthehydrogenenergyindustryisusheringinfavorablepolicies.Amongthemaintasksofthe2020NationalEconomicandSocialDevelopmentPlan,itisproposedforthefirsttimetoformulateanationalhydrogenenergyindustrydevelopmentstrategicplan. 　　Hydrogenenergyisgainingindustryrecognitionasan"energy"withitsownadvantagessuchascleanliness,zeroemissions,andhighheat.Inthepastfewyears,Chinahassetoffaboominhydrogenenergy,anddozensoflocalgovernmentshaveissuedplanstosupportthedevelopmentofthehydrogenenergyindustry. 　　Inthefaceofthe"14thFive-YearPlan",whatdevelopmenttrendwillthehydrogenenergyindustryusherininthenextfiveyears?Whatarethefactorsrestrictingthedevelopmentofthehydrogenenergyindustry?Thefirstelementnetworkandtheleadingthinktankhavemadethefollowingfivebasicjudgmentsonthedevelopmentofthe"14thFive-YearPlan"hydrogenenergyindustry. 　　01Thehydrogenenergyindustryisinaturbulentperiod,andthe"14thFive-YearPlan"willusherinnewdevelopmentopportunities Inrecentyears,thehydrogenenergyindustryhasusheredinmajordevelopmentopportunitiesinChina,mainlyduetotworeasons.First,comparedwithmorethantenyearsago,theproductioncostofhydrogenhasdroppedsignificantly.Progressandthesubstantialreductioninthecostofrenewableenergyperkilowatt-hourhavegiventhedevelopmentofthehydrogenenergyindustryamaterialfoundationforlarge-scaledevelopment.Second,therapidprogressofhydrogenfuelcellvehiclesinJapan,SouthKoreaandothercountrieshasallowedtheindustrytoseeahugedevelopmentspacefortheapplicationofhydrogenenergyinthetransportationfield. Inthecontextoflow-carbondevelopmentandenergytransformation,thehydrogenenergyindustryhasachievedabottom-updevelopmenttrendinChina,thatis,theindustry,localgovernments,andthesecondarymarketareveryactive,whichisalsodrivingtherapiddevelopmentofthehydrogenenergyindustryThebiggestfactor.Inparticular,theactiveinvolvementoflocalgovernmentshasfurtherestablishedthecompetitivelandscapeoftheindustryintheregionallayout. 　　However,thecurrentdevelopmenttrendofhydrogenenergystillhasmajorconstraintsonthelocalgovernment.Ontheonehand,somelocalgovernmentsblindlydeploythehydrogenenergyindustryandhaveinsufficientunderstandingofhydrogenenergy,andtheremaybecertainsafetyrisksinthefuture. 　　Ontheotherhand,hydrogenenergyrequiresalargeamountoffinancialsubsidiesfromlocalgovernmentsintheshortandmediumterm.Undertheinfluenceoftheepidemic,thefiscalrevenueoflocalgovernmentshasdroppedsharply,especiallyinsomeprovinceswithpooreconomies,whichisnotsuitableforlarge-scaledevelopmentofthehydrogenenergyindustryintheshortterm. 　　02Theapplicationofhydrogenenergyinthetransportationfieldwillusherinarelativelyrapidgrowthrateinthenext5-10years,buttherearemanyconstraintstotheexplosivegrowth Thereasonwhythenewroundofhydrogenenergyhasusheredinthedevelopmenttrendisthatahugedrivingforcecomesfromtheapplicationofhydrogenenergyinthetransportationfield,especiallytheperformanceofJapanandSouthKoreainthepassengercarmarket,whichopeneduptheimaginationofthehydrogencarindustryspace. Atpresent,JapaneseToyotaandHonda-basedautomakers,SouthKorea’sHyundaiandotherautomakershavealreadymass-producedpassengercars,especiallyToyota.Thetotalsalesofitsmiraifuelcellvehiclemarkethasexceeded10,000units.Tothemarket,anditsproductioncapacityisplannedtoexpand10timeswithintwoyears,whichhasarousedstrongmarketattention. 　　Inthenext5-10years,fuelcellvehicleswillshowarapidgrowthtrendworldwide.TheUnitedStates,Japan,China,Europeandotherregionswillbethekeyareasforhydrogenfuelcellvehicles.Chinaiscurrentlydominatedbycommercialvehicles,whicharemainlyusedinlogistics,publictransportationandbuses.Itisexpectedtoachieverapiddevelopmentwiththesupportoflocalpolicies. 　　However,whetherhydrogenvehiclescanachieveexplosivegrowth,therearestillseveralconstraintsthatneedtobebrokenthrough: 　　Oneistherateofdeclineofhydrogencost.CurrentlyinBeijingandsurroundingmarkets,theterminalhydrogenenergymarketpriceis70yuan/kg,andthepriceintheYangtzeRiverDeltaandPearlRiverDeltaregionsis80-120yuan/kg.TaketheBeijingregionalbusasanexample.Thehydrogenenergyconsumptionper100kilometersis8kilograms,thatis,560yuanper100kilometers.Comparedwithgasolineanddieselvehicles,thecompetitivenessisseriouslyinsufficient. 　　Thesecondiswhetherthesubsidypolicycanbecontinued.Atpresent,hydrogenfuelcellvehicleshaverelativelyhighfinancialsubsidies.Forgeneralbuses,iftheytravel20,000kilometers,theywillreceiveasubsidyofabout1millionyuan.Inthehydrogenenergyrefuelingprocess,Beijingandsurroundingareasreceiveagovernmentsubsidyofabout30yuanperkilogramofhydrogen.Whethertheabovesubsidycancontinueinthefuturewilldirectlyaffectthepopularityandutilizationofhydrogenenergyvehicles. 　　03Hydrogenrefuelingstationswillbebuiltonalargescaleduringthe"14thFive-YearPlan"period,andstate-ownedcapitalwillbethemainforceininvestinginhydrogenrefuelingstations 　　Themostimportantlinkinthedevelopmentofhydrogenenergyvehiclesiswhetherthelayoutofhydrogenrefuelingstationsandrelatedinfrastructurecanbestartedquickly.Asoftheendof2019,Chinahasmorethan50hydrogenrefuelingstationsandmorethan10areunderconstruction.Therearedozenso

“十四五”氢能行业发展的五个基本判断

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Five basic judgments for the development of the hydrogen energy industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan

(Summary description)Thedevelopmentofthehydrogenenergyindustryisusheringinfavorablepolicies.Amongthemaintasksofthe2020NationalEconomicandSocialDevelopmentPlan,itisproposedforthefirsttimetoformulateanationalhydrogenenergyindustrydevelopmentstrategicplan. 　　Hydrogenenergyisgainingindustryrecognitionasan"energy"withitsownadvantagessuchascleanliness,zeroemissions,andhighheat.Inthepastfewyears,Chinahassetoffaboominhydrogenenergy,anddozensoflocalgovernmentshaveissuedplanstosupportthedevelopmentofthehydrogenenergyindustry. 　　Inthefaceofthe"14thFive-YearPlan",whatdevelopmenttrendwillthehydrogenenergyindustryusherininthenextfiveyears?Whatarethefactorsrestrictingthedevelopmentofthehydrogenenergyindustry?Thefirstelementnetworkandtheleadingthinktankhavemadethefollowingfivebasicjudgmentsonthedevelopmentofthe"14thFive-YearPlan"hydrogenenergyindustry. 　　01Thehydrogenenergyindustryisinaturbulentperiod,andthe"14thFive-YearPlan"willusherinnewdevelopmentopportunities Inrecentyears,thehydrogenenergyindustryhasusheredinmajordevelopmentopportunitiesinChina,mainlyduetotworeasons.First,comparedwithmorethantenyearsago,theproductioncostofhydrogenhasdroppedsignificantly.Progressandthesubstantialreductioninthecostofrenewableenergyperkilowatt-hourhavegiventhedevelopmentofthehydrogenenergyindustryamaterialfoundationforlarge-scaledevelopment.Second,therapidprogressofhydrogenfuelcellvehiclesinJapan,SouthKoreaandothercountrieshasallowedtheindustrytoseeahugedevelopmentspacefortheapplicationofhydrogenenergyinthetransportationfield. Inthecontextoflow-carbondevelopmentandenergytransformation,thehydrogenenergyindustryhasachievedabottom-updevelopmenttrendinChina,thatis,theindustry,localgovernments,andthesecondarymarketareveryactive,whichisalsodrivingtherapiddevelopmentofthehydrogenenergyindustryThebiggestfactor.Inparticular,theactiveinvolvementoflocalgovernmentshasfurtherestablishedthecompetitivelandscapeoftheindustryintheregionallayout. 　　However,thecurrentdevelopmenttrendofhydrogenenergystillhasmajorconstraintsonthelocalgovernment.Ontheonehand,somelocalgovernmentsblindlydeploythehydrogenenergyindustryandhaveinsufficientunderstandingofhydrogenenergy,andtheremaybecertainsafetyrisksinthefuture. 　　Ontheotherhand,hydrogenenergyrequiresalargeamountoffinancialsubsidiesfromlocalgovernmentsintheshortandmediumterm.Undertheinfluenceoftheepidemic,thefiscalrevenueoflocalgovernmentshasdroppedsharply,especiallyinsomeprovinceswithpooreconomies,whichisnotsuitableforlarge-scaledevelopmentofthehydrogenenergyindustryintheshortterm. 　　02Theapplicationofhydrogenenergyinthetransportationfieldwillusherinarelativelyrapidgrowthrateinthenext5-10years,buttherearemanyconstraintstotheexplosivegrowth Thereasonwhythenewroundofhydrogenenergyhasusheredinthedevelopmenttrendisthatahugedrivingforcecomesfromtheapplicationofhydrogenenergyinthetransportationfield,especiallytheperformanceofJapanandSouthKoreainthepassengercarmarket,whichopeneduptheimaginationofthehydrogencarindustryspace. Atpresent,JapaneseToyotaandHonda-basedautomakers,SouthKorea’sHyundaiandotherautomakershavealreadymass-producedpassengercars,especiallyToyota.Thetotalsalesofitsmiraifuelcellvehiclemarkethasexceeded10,000units.Tothemarket,anditsproductioncapacityisplannedtoexpand10timeswithintwoyears,whichhasarousedstrongmarketattention. 　　Inthenext5-10years,fuelcellvehicleswillshowarapidgrowthtrendworldwide.TheUnitedStates,Japan,China,Europeandotherregionswillbethekeyareasforhydrogenfuelcellvehicles.Chinaiscurrentlydominatedbycommercialvehicles,whicharemainlyusedinlogistics,publictransportationandbuses.Itisexpectedtoachieverapiddevelopmentwiththesupportoflocalpolicies. 　　However,whetherhydrogenvehiclescanachieveexplosivegrowth,therearestillseveralconstraintsthatneedtobebrokenthrough: 　　Oneistherateofdeclineofhydrogencost.CurrentlyinBeijingandsurroundingmarkets,theterminalhydrogenenergymarketpriceis70yuan/kg,andthepriceintheYangtzeRiverDeltaandPearlRiverDeltaregionsis80-120yuan/kg.TaketheBeijingregionalbusasanexample.Thehydrogenenergyconsumptionper100kilometersis8kilograms,thatis,560yuanper100kilometers.Comparedwithgasolineanddieselvehicles,thecompetitivenessisseriouslyinsufficient. 　　Thesecondiswhetherthesubsidypolicycanbecontinued.Atpresent,hydrogenfuelcellvehicleshaverelativelyhighfinancialsubsidies.Forgeneralbuses,iftheytravel20,000kilometers,theywillreceiveasubsidyofabout1millionyuan.Inthehydrogenenergyrefuelingprocess,Beijingandsurroundingareasreceiveagovernmentsubsidyofabout30yuanperkilogramofhydrogen.Whethertheabovesubsidycancontinueinthefuturewilldirectlyaffectthepopularityandutilizationofhydrogenenergyvehicles. 　　03Hydrogenrefuelingstationswillbebuiltonalargescaleduringthe"14thFive-YearPlan"period,andstate-ownedcapitalwillbethemainforceininvestinginhydrogenrefuelingstations 　　Themostimportantlinkinthedevelopmentofhydrogenenergyvehiclesiswhetherthelayoutofhydrogenrefuelingstationsandrelatedinfrastructurecanbestartedquickly.Asoftheendof2019,Chinahasmorethan50hydrogenrefuelingstationsandmorethan10areunderconstruction.Therearedozenso

Categories:News
Author:
Origin:
Time of issue:2020-06-04
Views:0

The development of the hydrogen energy industry is ushering in favorable policies. Among the main tasks of the 2020 National Economic and Social Development Plan, it is proposed for the first time to formulate a national hydrogen energy industry development strategic plan.

　　Hydrogen energy is gaining industry recognition as an "energy" with its own advantages such as cleanliness, zero emissions, and high heat. In the past few years, China has set off a boom in hydrogen energy, and dozens of local governments have issued plans to support the development of the hydrogen energy industry.

　　In the face of the "14th Five-Year Plan", what development trend will the hydrogen energy industry usher in in the next five years? What are the factors restricting the development of the hydrogen energy industry? The first element network and the leading think tank have made the following five basic judgments on the development of the "14th Five-Year Plan" hydrogen energy industry.

　　01 The hydrogen energy industry is in a turbulent period, and the "14th Five-Year Plan" will usher in new development opportunities

In recent years, the hydrogen energy industry has ushered in major development opportunities in China, mainly due to two reasons. First, compared with more than ten years ago, the production cost of hydrogen has dropped significantly. Progress and the substantial reduction in the cost of renewable energy per kilowatt-hour have given the development of the hydrogen energy industry a material foundation for large-scale development. Second, the rapid progress of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Japan, South Korea and other countries has allowed the industry to see a huge development space for the application of hydrogen energy in the transportation field.

In the context of low-carbon development and energy transformation, the hydrogen energy industry has achieved a bottom-up development trend in China, that is, the industry, local governments, and the secondary market are very active, which is also driving the rapid development of the hydrogen energy industry The biggest factor. In particular, the active involvement of local governments has further established the competitive landscape of the industry in the regional layout.

　　 However, the current development trend of hydrogen energy still has major constraints on the local government. On the one hand, some local governments blindly deploy the hydrogen energy industry and have insufficient understanding of hydrogen energy, and there may be certain safety risks in the future.

　　 On the other hand, hydrogen energy requires a large amount of financial subsidies from local governments in the short and medium term. Under the influence of the epidemic, the fiscal revenue of local governments has dropped sharply, especially in some provinces with poor economies, which is not suitable for large-scale development of the hydrogen energy industry in the short term.

　　02 The application of hydrogen energy in the transportation field will usher in a relatively rapid growth rate in the next 5-10 years, but there are many constraints to the explosive growth

The reason why the new round of hydrogen energy has ushered in the development trend is that a huge driving force comes from the application of hydrogen energy in the transportation field, especially the performance of Japan and South Korea in the passenger car market, which opened up the imagination of the hydrogen car industry space.

At present, Japanese Toyota and Honda-based automakers, South Korea’s Hyundai and other automakers have already mass-produced passenger cars, especially Toyota. The total sales of its mirai fuel cell vehicle market has exceeded 10,000 units. To the market, and its production capacity is planned to expand 10 times within two years, which has aroused strong market attention.

　　In the next 5-10 years, fuel cell vehicles will show a rapid growth trend worldwide. The United States, Japan, China, Europe and other regions will be the key areas for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. China is currently dominated by commercial vehicles, which are mainly used in logistics, public transportation and buses. It is expected to achieve rapid development with the support of local policies.

　　 However, whether hydrogen vehicles can achieve explosive growth, there are still several constraints that need to be broken through:

　　 One is the rate of decline of hydrogen cost. Currently in Beijing and surrounding markets, the terminal hydrogen energy market price is 70 yuan/kg, and the price in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions is 80-120 yuan/kg. Take the Beijing regional bus as an example. The hydrogen energy consumption per 100 kilometers is 8 kilograms, that is, 560 yuan per 100 kilometers. Compared with gasoline and diesel vehicles, the competitiveness is seriously insufficient.

　　 The second is whether the subsidy policy can be continued. At present, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have relatively high financial subsidies. For general buses, if they travel 20,000 kilometers, they will receive a subsidy of about 1 million yuan. In the hydrogen energy refueling process, Beijing and surrounding areas receive a government subsidy of about 30 yuan per kilogram of hydrogen. Whether the above subsidy can continue in the future will directly affect the popularity and utilization of hydrogen energy vehicles.

　　03 Hydrogen refueling stations will be built on a large scale during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and state-owned capital will be the main force in investing in hydrogen refueling stations

　　 The most important link in the development of hydrogen energy vehicles is whether the layout of hydrogen refueling stations and related infrastructure can be started quickly. As of the end of 2019, China has more than 50 hydrogen refueling stations and more than 10 are under construction. There are dozens of hydrogen refueling stations under planning. There is huge room for future development.

If the intensity of policy support for hydrogen energy does not decline, by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the number of hydrogen refueling stations in China may exceed 150, and the main investment entities in the future will be central enterprises such as PetroChina, Sinopec, National Energy, and Three Gorges Corporation. , Supplemented by private and joint ventures.

The current investment cost of a 35MP hydrogen refueling station is between 18-25 million yuan, and government subsidies range from 3-5 million yuan. According to the current hydrogen price, it can achieve a balance of income and expenditure by refueling about 400 hydrogen fuel vehicles every day. However, judging from the current vehicle situation, almost all hydrogen refueling stations in operation in China are at a loss.

　　 It is worth mentioning that the oil-hydrogen mixing stations built by traditional oil and gas sales companies such as Sinopec and PetroChina will greatly reduce the operating costs of hydrogen refueling stations. At present, in order to encourage investment in hydrogen refueling stations, some areas adopt a model of combining hydrogen refueling stations and gas stations, that is, if a company invests in a hydrogen refueling station there, one gas station can be approved, and then the profit of the gas station is used to subsidize the operation of the hydrogen refueling station .

　　04 In the fuel cell vehicle industry chain, the proportion of domestic production of main components such as stacks will increase significantly in the next 5-10 years, and the price of fuel cell vehicles will continue to fall

The cost of fuel cell vehicles is currently high. The price of a fuel cell bus is 2-3 times that of gasoline vehicles of the same type. The main reason for the high price is the high price of fuel cells and their core components, stacks, and they are mainly dependent on foreign countries. technology.

At present, more than 80% of China’s stacks use foreign technology. Its main manufacturers, Guohong Hydrogen Energy and Weichai Power, all come from Canada’s Ballard Company. The stack technology independently developed in China is gradually being improved and matured. The proportion of transformation will drop significantly.

The autonomous technology represented by Tomorrow's Hydrogen Energy is currently being put into operation. The technology comes from Dalian Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Tongji University. It is considered a representative of stack autonomy. As the technology matures and improves, the cost of fuel cell vehicles is expected Get a further drop.

　　 On the other hand, China’s current fuel cell shipments are still relatively small, but the layout’s production capacity has exceeded the demand for dozens of times.

In 2019, the output of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China was only 3,018, and the current overall production capacity of fuel cells in China has reached 150,000 yuan/year. Therefore, the fuel cell industry will face fierce market competition in the future, and prices will also increase accordingly. decline.

　　05 With the development of the hydrogen energy industry, the application scenarios of hydrogen energy will increase significantly. In the next few years, the application of hydrogen energy in natural gas and other fields will receive more attention

At present, the application of hydrogen energy in the market is mainly concentrated in the transportation field, mainly in passenger cars, commercial vehicles and hydrogen ships. However, the application scenarios of hydrogen energy are very wide. According to relevant experts, the mixed combustion of hydrogen energy and natural gas will be There will be a larger market space.

　　 Natural gas has always been considered a clean energy source, but recent studies have found that the burning of natural gas brings huge nitrogen oxide pollution, which has become one of the main pollution sources of air pollutants and climate warming.

The hydrogenation and combustion of natural gas can greatly reduce nitrogen oxide emissions. For example, adding 20% of hydrogen to CNG vehicles can reduce nitrogen oxide emissions by 4 times, while adding less than 5% of hydrogen to natural gas pipelines. It will also greatly reduce nitrogen oxide emissions during the combustion process.

In the medium and long term (2050), due to the general trend of energy transition and the unique advantages of hydrogen energy, the hydrogen energy industry continues to be favored, but whether it can achieve rapid development in the near future mainly depends on two factors. One is whether policy subsidies will continue. Or whether there will be further increases in subsidies, the second is the rate of decline in the cost of the industrial chain.

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Five basic judgments for the development of the hydrogen energy industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan

“十四五”氢能行业发展的五个基本判断

Five basic judgments for the development of the hydrogen energy industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan

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